منابع مشابه
Prospect Theory
Prospect theory is a descriptive theory of how individuals choose among risky alternatives. The theory challenged the conventional wisdom that economic decision makers are rational expected utility maximizers. We present a number of empirical demonstrations that are inconsistent with the classical theory, expected utility, but can be explained by prospect theory. We then discuss the prospect th...
متن کاملProspect Theory
Prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979) predictions were examined in light of ethnocentrism and intergroup conflict. An experiment conducted at the outset of the 2003 invasion of Iraq by the U.S., U. K. and their allies explored American and British participants’ preferences for certain versus uncertain gains and losses concerning Iraqi, American, and British lives. In four conditions, parti...
متن کاملThird-generation prospect theory
We present a new theory of decision under uncertainty: third-generation prospect theory (PT). This retains the predictive power of previous versions of prospect theory, but extends that theory by allowing reference points to be uncertain while decision weights are specified in a rank-dependent way. We show that PT preferences respect a state-conditional form of stochastic dominance. The theory ...
متن کاملPrediction using Prospect Theory
In this report, we consider prediction of an agent’s preferences over risky monetary outcomes using Prospect Theory. We suppose that for a given agent we have data on previous prospects that the agent has accepted or declined. Based on this information, we would like to predict whether the agent will accept some new prospect X∗. This amounts to learning a value function v and probability weight...
متن کاملA New Foundation for Support Theory
A new foundation is presented for the theory of subjective judgments of probability generally known as “Support Theory.” It is based on a new complementation operation that, unlike those of classical probability theory (settheoretic complementation) and classical logic (negation), does not satisfy the principle of The Law Of The Excluded Middle. Interrelationships between the new complementatio...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
سال: 2012
ISSN: 0895-5646,1573-0476
DOI: 10.1007/s11166-012-9150-8